Many players say they hit their seven iron 150 yards when in reality, it's 145 or 155. TPC Southwind, site of his maiden victory is not a perfect comp for Bay Hill, but his performance on similar Bermuda greens is one that should translate. No, he is not a tout. The. Sand Wedge. This will be our last stop on the West Coast swing, so its worth revisiting the Poa specialists: Homa, Rahm, Rodgers, Kuchar, Taylor, Scott, Peter Malnati, Wyndham Clark, Webb Simpson, and Justin Suh. Long game shots (those starting over 100 yards from the hole) explain about two-thirds of the variability in scores among golfers on the PGA TOUR. He averaged 303 yards off the tee at PGA National, 29th in the field. Judging by PGA Championship futures, which tend to set a fair line with course history bias removed, I project Tiger to open at around 65-1. ET (the day's coverage includes Golf Today at 12 p.m. 80-100 yards. Copyright 2023 Leaf Group Ltd. / Leaf Group Media, All Rights Reserved. 1 in the field in terms of SG: T2G in comp conditions. Cantlay challenged Rahm at the Genesis and here we are getting better than three times what the price is on Jon Rahm this week. The leader, Jim Furyk, clocked in at 31 feet. For a tournament with a field that left a lot to be desired, the magic of the PGA Tour shined through as Cole and Kirk separated themselves from the pack on Sunday afternoon. Some of the bigger names in this field that check that box are Gary Woodland, Sungjae Im, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, Tom Hoge, Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa, and Rory McIlroy. That means Arnold Palmer Invitational odds will include most of the best players in the world. All three are strong fits for the course with proven past results and are expected to be the favorites when odds are released on Monday. PGA Tour player approach shots: 100-125 yards GIR: 74.59% Proximity from the fairway: 20'0 Proximity from the rough: 30'3 PGA Tour player approach shots: 150-175 yards GIR: 63.95% John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. His price is a little shorter than I expected but I took the plunge anyway. From one elevated event to another, the party was only just getting started in Phoenix. So how did Casey do it? The typical carry for a 3-iron shot was 203 yards; for a 4-iron 189; for a 5-iron 181; for a 6-iron 169; for a 7-iron 160; for an 8-iron 149; and for a 9-iron 136. Colt Knost and the other PGA Tour pros that called Royal Oaks Golf Club in Dallas home used to call Scottie Scheffler their little shadow. Every eligible PGA TOUR member inside the OWGRtop 100 with the exception of Aaron Wise, Maverick McNealy, Chris Kirk, and Ben Griffin are here to tee it up. Holmes was 55th at 70.52 while Watson tied for 64th at 70.62. Unlikely. In this field over the last 36 rounds, Day is 8th in SG Ball Striking, 11th in SG Approach, and 20th in SG Putting. That attracts the best players each year to compete and test their all around skillsets ahead of Major season. To nobodys surprise, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy rank very high for me statistically this week but with their prices so short, Ive gone a little further down the board for my selections. I was making an appearance on SportsGrid Radio last Sunday night, recapping the Honda Classic and looking ahead to Bay Hill. Find the favorites in Florida this week with odds shorter than 20-1 here when sportsbooks open odds midday Monday. The iconic Riviera Country Club was once my favorite course to play on EA Sports Tiger Woods PGA TOUR 07. It would be clich to say that no course compares to Riviera CC, but I do struggle to find an exact match. Following a busy West Coast Swing, the Arnold Palmer Invitational has not always ushered in as many of the elites as weve grown used to seeing at the Genesis Invitational. The Arnold Palmer Invitational has seen shorter-priced players win, however, in recent history, and I believe that speaks to how demanding the golf course is and the often very challenging weather that comes into play. The wind at the Genesis Invitational today is absolutely insane!pic.twitter.com/TMz44EvdDq. Driver a long way, typically in the 290-yard range Nicklaus led the Tour in driving is., this course ranked as the ninth-hardest course on pga tour proximity to hole 50 yards PGA Tour average to. According the Leaderboard website, PGA Tour players' average 4-iron shots travel 210 to 220 yards (including the roll). For the week, Casey ranked 9th in driving accuracy, 6th in strokes gained off the tee and 9th in SG around the green. On Tour, Jason Day ranks 11th in Total Driving his accuracy has greatly improved, hes 33rd in Greens in Regulation, and 4th in Scrambling. Example: You hit your 5-iron 150 yards. A look down the list of past champions illustrates a trend of above-average driving distance with total driving as a strength of their games. The long list of repeat performers illustrates that Course History is more sticky at Bay Hill than most other PGA TOUR courses. That distinction (and his presence) adds more prestige to the tournament. 2020 U.S. Open champion has a one-stroke lead over Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm a hole-out longer! hr case studies employee relations . Scrambling GainedandSG: Short Gamemake the biggest jump compared to TOUR average, each falling inside the top 10. All four par 3s are 200 yards or longer and that contributes heavily to so many of the approach shots here coming from 200 yards or more. We are in the teeth of the grinder stretch on the PGA TOUR. He does everything well and that is what is needed at this course. He also drew parallels to the familiar windy, firm, and fast conditions of the Australian Sandbelt as explanation for his preference to Riviera CCs setup. In round 4 on the par-5 12th, Furyk hit his third shot from 101 yards in the fairway to a cozy eight feet from the hole. Now it has matured into one of my favorite landscapes to watch golf, as well. Proximity to Hole from < 10 yards | PGA TOUR Stats To watch in a smaller size, scroll down while your video is playing. From a leaderboard overlap standpoint, Quail Hollow and Augusta National would have to be up there. Now we head for another one of the elevated events, The Arnold Palmer Invitational and he has five more picks as well as a comprehensive preview. Step 1 - don't panic. Currently I practice indoors because of the winter. A cold putter has led to some disappointing recent finishes, but McIlroy continues to rank No. The average distance for a pitching wedge is 130 to 135 yards; for a sand wedge 115 to 120 yards; and for lob wedges 75 to 95 yards. Another week, another elevated event! Previewing the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational with our top picks based on the best PGA Tour odds. So just as the Homa in California trend continues to pay dividends, Zalatoris in difficult conditions is one of the most reliable narratives in professional golf to go back to. Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks fromGOLF.comsexpert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. The lack of wind last week at the Honda Classic was really an outlier versus what we typically see on the Florida Swing. At the Genesis Invitational, Matsuyama gained strokes putting in three of his last four appearances. Matsuyama has six top-20 finishes over the last two years between The Farmers, The Masters, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and U.S. Open at The Country Club. Tony Finau can confirm. Just four players rank in the top 30 in SG: ARG, Scrambling, and Sand Saves: Matsuyama, Todd, Robby Shelton, and JJ Spaun. 1 in Bogey Avoidance in comp conditions and Comp Course History. As far as correlated courses, I looked at Scottsdale. Even they will struggle to hit a high percentage of fairways with the firm conditions, undulated runoffs, and intermittent pick ups in wind. Francesco Molinari a member at Riviera CC and top-10 finisher in this event in 2021 was also dominant in his victory at the 2018 Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac. Heres a look at everything you can expect to help navigate 2023 Genesis Invitational odds. It has been a while since Ive made a bet backing Jason Day but the guy is sneaking up on all of us with the way he has been playing the last five months. Standing over 7,400 yards, Bay Hill will force a high volume of approaches from 200+ yards, and features some of the thickest rough on TOUR. Their full shot distances are longer. Unfortunately for our purposes, this is the first time that Patrick Cantlay will be playing in this event. Scott has not missed a cut since the PGA Championship in May 2022, and has four top-6 finishes over his last nine starts. The hole plays 14 yards longer than the difficult par-4 12th hole and features the same scoring average of 4.3. The presence of these reachable par-4s and par-5s creates hidden distance in the rest of the course, which also includes three par-3s over 190 yards and six par-4s over 450 yards. Harman ranks 21st in this field over the last 24 rounds on hard courses with long rough. Most of the recent difficult scoring venues like TPC Potomac, The Country Club, Southern Hills, Torrey Pines (South), Innisbrook (Copperhead), and Bay Hill should serve as strong comps to simulate the all-around tee-to-green game required to contend. Im sure in Tigers mind he believes he can take care of that unfinished business at age 47. With a high volume of approaches expected from the rough onto these greens, any semblance of wind will divert the emphasis to Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance, so its a crucial week to monitor the weather before locking in your bets. A recipient of the Arnold Palmer scholarship at Wake Forest University, there are some ties to The King for Willy Z. The average shot hit with a driver carried 260 yards and traveled a total of 287.3 yards, including the roll. This helps me get shallow which is needed to get lower flight and spin. Stop me if youve heard that one before! With that said, there is no set formula to find success at Bay Hill, but prior success in demanding conditions tend to be the best indicator. A pro player is also careful to note how far he can hit each club, so he knows which iron, wood or hybrid to pull from the bag during tournament play. June 12, 2022 . Instead,Bogey Avoidance, GIRs Gained, P4: 450-500,andSG: Short Gamemake the biggest jumps inside the top 10 at this event. "On the PGA Tour, from 20 yards in the rough, when you have at least 10 yards of green to work with, [Tour pros] leave 50 percent of their shots outside of eight feet." Why the key to. three appearances): Scott, Schauffele, Homa, Rahm, Hahn, Holmes, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Russell Henley, Alex Noren, KH Lee, Lanto Griffin, Scott Piercy, and Brian Harman. Start the Golf Season off right with InsideGOLF ($100 value - just $20). Tournament TOUR Championship TOUR Average 3' 8" The average distance to the hole (in feet) after hitting the ball onto the putting surface from around the green and the shot taken was less. Even more encouraging to me than the T4 placement however, is how hes finished tournaments. However, the defending champion but will not be in the field for his title defense after leaving the PGA TOUR behind for LIV. A 2003 Golf Digest article noted that the average PGA Tour drive traveled 260.4 yards in 1993, 279.8 yards in 2002 and 287.8 yards in 2003. For the best website. Ideally, the tour would like firm and fast fairways which would give 30 to 40 yards of roll out. You dont need to grow out the rough or push tee boxes back to extreme lengths. Outside of Majors, this is poised to be the strongest field in golf this year. 10 players rank above-average in each of this weeks top-10 correlated stats with success at Riviera CC. Golf is hard and Tour highlights don't give a realistic idea just how hard it is. While we wont have a title defense to look forward to, unfortunately, Id say Woods return to competitive professional golf is a pretty decent consolation prize. With that said, there are still plenty of signals to draw from other long and difficult comp conditions. . The fairways have been made wider and longer but the rough is about as close to U.S. 16 players avoided missing the cut at the Genesis Invitational over the last five years (min. The opening hole is a downhill, 500-yard "Par-5." (I'm air-quoting the designation because it could just as easily be labeled a difficult par-4.) Kisner, who played Augusta National on Sunday, said he had 210 yards to the front of the green - "I pounded it and there was no roll" - and anticipated that "the bombers can probably get home with 5- or 6-iron.". Riviera CC is the site of Tiger Woods first PGA TOUR start back at the 1992 Los Angeles Open. PGA TOUR - European Tour - 4 Most Recent Majors - Champions Tour - LPGA - Korn Ferry - Custom Performance Analysis Where Winners Come From - examine position of tournament winners per round - by player or tournament Prior Tournaments - analyize previous 4 Weeks on tour and at this weeks tournament. Annually one of the most difficult scoring venues on the PGA TOUR schedule, its always a good idea to reference recent Major results in Arnold Palmer Invitational week, as Scheffler foreshadowed with his 2022 victory. According the Leaderboard website, PGA Tour players' average 4-iron shots travel 210 to 220 yards (including the roll). He ranked second in strokes gained/putting and made 407 feet of. However, imposes one of the most stern challenges on the PGA TOUR nonetheless. Those at the top of Genesis Invitational odds boards rarely prove able to close the door at this event. Course Fit Tool Are certain skill sets such as distance, or accuracy favoured at specific courses? These firm and fast Poa greens also give players fits every year. ). An average 3-wood shot carried 238 yards and the average 5-wood carried 223 yards. Tiger Woods hadn't made a start in a non-major, official PGA Tour event since the Zozo Championship in October 2020. More important than how far you hit the ball is to know your own distances. These are all skillsets Matsuyama leaned into to win the 2021 Masters and have helped him contend regularly at this event over the years. He is a two-time winner at Riviera CC, winning his event debut (then known as the Nissan Open, 2005) and again 15 years later in 2020. 1,283 player in the world, Tiger Woods. 70-90 yards. Brian Harman is the 24th ranked player in the world yet is priced more than 3.5 times longer than 35-1. Approaches from 150 yards. The cut line has been over par at the Genesis Invitational every year over the last decade. This event ranked in the bottom two in average Driving Accuracy every year since 2015.