Global Affairs Explained is an ongoing project aiming to provide concise guides to world events. Chinas main land dispute is over Taiwan, which is not a NATO member. But what could cause a war between China and NATO? This site is owned and operated by Duncan Ball. By one estimate from Harvard University, more than 130,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or severely wounded, in addition to the deaths of more than 7,000 Ukrainian civilians. The Soviet Union eventually imploded. Chinese opinion turned further against the alliance when later newspaper reports suggested the attack was a deliberate action by NATO as they thought the embassy was being used to send communications for the Yugoslav army. Instead, the anti-democratic alliance between the two countries which is resentful of American hegemony and committed to tearing down the liberal world order that has prevailed for more than eight decades is growing stronger. Russian media has bragged that the country has night vision technology that is even better than what the U.S. military has. That is the reason Western leaders have been ruling out the possibility of imposing a no-fly zone. Washington and its allies have said in recent weeks that China was considering . Highest value in the world: 816 billion $ (, Highest value in the world: 385,821,101 (. Owner of this site is not responsible for potential mistakes or lacks of data. Related Articles India needs a Yash Chopra, India: Rahul Gandhi needs to get the messaging right. Allies do need, therefore, to step up and do more for their defense, but they will not do it on their own if the United States threatens to leave Europe. A hypothetical military alliance between China and Russia. The Russian president got many things wrong about invading Ukrainebut not everything. But (Ankara continues) to have some challenges with Sweden., He said he welcomed the fact that he and Erdogan agreed to a meeting soon of experts and officials in Brussels from the three countries involved to look into how we can make progress also on the ratification of Sweden as a full NATO ally., Follow APs coverage of the war at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine, 24/7 coverage of breaking news and live events. This website stores cookies on your computer. What can we glean from the current state of play on the battlefield? Similarly, the United States could rely on threatening nonstrategic nuclear strikes to deter and, as a last resort, thwart a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan or a Russian tank incursion into Europe. The Peoples Republic of China is the most populous country in the world and the second largest economy. Therefore, there almost certainly wont be a war between NATO and China. Russia would not have invaded, the war never would have started a . China Finnish MPs to vote on speeding up Nato accession process; Kremlin dismisses Ukraine denial it sent drones to attack targets within Russia A Ukrainian military spokesperson has said that "there . Sen. Chris Murphy, a Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, told NBC News on Tuesday that the U.S. needs to be careful not to send too much military hardware to Ukraine or it could risk . Russia's forces also beat China when it comes to the number of tanks in their military. Xi Jinpings signature foreign policy is a shadow of its former self.. The 2010 document made no mention of China, but the new one addressed Beijing's . Our live coverage of Russia's war in Ukraine has moved here. Some information is indicative and estimated because of lack of official or up-to-date data. As China wishes to reduce Americas influence in the region, the creation of a formal alliance between the US and Western-aligned countries in East Asia would be directly opposed to Chinas strategic interests. Crucially, China strongly opposes the formation of a NATO-type alliance in Asia. For the West to prevail, the United States must lead the fight with a strategy suited to the complex challenges we face. It appears clear that the combined armies of NATO countries are stronger than China. Importantly, there is almost no reason why China would attack NATO. Otherwise, the planet may not survive this time this MAD situation. His latest book is The Return of Great Power Rivalry: Democracy Versus Autocracy From the Ancient World to the U.S. and China. China claims Taiwan as an integral part of its territory. Russia and China flew joint bomber patrols over the Pacific. The world over, countries are embarking on ambitious projects of industrial policy. Therefore, China would need to attack Europe for a full war to breakout between China and NATO. Russia also has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons approximately 6,400 warheads. While Russia desperately needs China to stabilize its economy amid unprecedented sanctions, President Xis calculus is that Russia is useful ballast in his larger battle with the U.S. and our allies. If Putin had hoped to weaken NATO, the very opposite has happened, with Finland and Sweden on the cusp of joining the transatlantic military alliance. 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Russia's invasion of Ukraine earlier this year has caused great concern amongst NATO allies in the West. There are currently 28 member countries. If Putin had hoped to weaken NATO, the very opposite has happened, with Finland and Sweden on the cusp of joining the transatlantic military alliance. Russia has invaded its' former Republics and thus causing NATO to declare war on them. Nato vs. Russia: who would win a war? The United States and its formal treaty allies possess nearly 60 percent of global GDP, and together, they can easily marshal the resources to maintain a favorable balance of military power over both China and Russia. Politicians and experts argue that the United States lacks the resources to take on both Russia and China. Throughout the war, the US and other NATO allies have been steadily increasing the amount of security assistance for Ukraine, outfitting Kyiv with billions of dollars in advanced artillery systems, missile defense batteries, and other deadly weapons. But without the full force of the US, there is absolutely no way European powers would stand a chance. The core principle of Nato is collective defence. However, the Chinese government does not have an official policy against NATO and it cannot be said that everyone in China has a hatred for the alliance. With 14,061 planes (vs Russias 3,212) and the Navys 17,781 ships (including 11 aircraft carrier) vs Russias 4,650 vessels (one aircraft carrier), the US clearly has an edge. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. As Russian . However, there are other factors that would likely determine the outcome of a war between NATO and China. It is basically a military commitment to ensure that no Russian aircraft fly over Ukraine. China and Russia vs NATO. Evening roundup with our editors favorite stories of the day. Russia is not withdrawing from the treaty, which is in force until 2026, but Putin said Russia cannot accept U.S. inspections of its nuclear sites while Washington and its NATO allies seek Russia . One of the main objectives of NATO is to protect democratic countries. For its part, Washington has made a series of policy choices over the last few years that can be summed Show moreup as tough on Beijing, even seeking to contain the rise of the worlds second-biggest economy. Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant. In recent weeks, Biden has sent several thousand U.S. troops to reinforce NATOs eastern flankand for good reason. The demand for . The combined armies of NATO have almost 10,000 more main battle tanks than China does. NATO is also able to add many more reservists than China, contributing to its overall military strength. With over one million more frontline troops, it is clear that NATO is much more powerful than China. And they've deployed recently upgraded . Opinion | Delivered Friday. Depending on where any war between China and NATO was fought, it could be a defining factor. But beyond the goals of one leader in Moscow, it is also clear that Ukraine has suffered horrors of a historic nature. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday called on China to refrain from sending weapons . The number of troops NATO has is a key factor in determining how strong it is compared to Chinas military. The U.S. Weve linked to the paperback on Amazon.com. Despite fresh salvos of Western sanctions, Tehran and Moscow are buddying up on defense ties. Moreover, if Russian President Vladimir Putin succeeds in Ukraine, why would he stop there? But its not just the United States. Biden put on shades and, with a heavy security entourage, strutted through the central square of Kyiv (Ukraine's capital) as if to announce that a "new . If the war is not stopped in Ukraine, she said, we are going to see others under threat the Baltics, Poland, Moldova, and it could end up in a conflict with Nato. For over a century now the nations of the continent have been some of the most advanced and prosperous globally. With Beijing and Moscow ramping up their military capabilities, does NATO have the power to stop them? Scholz also said that Germany is working on meeting NATO's 2% defense spending target. China is not a direct threat to NATO. China is not going to attack Europe or North America. Police dog debate is barking up the wrong tree Rose-colored glasses dont change facts about inflation Its leaders know that a war with Russia will be MAD (mutually assured destruction). Lets explore this a bit more. Commenting on this and other recent articles is just one benefit of a Foreign Policy subscription. 22/23 SLIDES . but thats just an overview. See here for the latest updates. But many in the West have called for action citing a bigger danger if Russias offensive in Ukraine is not checked now. The victory condition is the unconditional surrender of the opposing enemy forces. FPsRavi Agrawalsat down with U.S. Trade RepresentativeKatherine Tai, the Biden administrations top official tasked with mapping out and implementing the White Houses trade policy. 2 March 2023 at 07:34. . Now, lets look at the data. It's the most powerful military alliance in human history versus. When it comes to personnel, China . Delivered Wednesday. Further, if Putin is defeated in Ukraine, China will likely lose access to cheap Russian energy, and will have a mercurial, humiliated and nuclear-armed dictator on its northern border. Admission of new members to military alliance could create a more dangerous balance of power, experts warn. In addition, Xi is gauging U.S. resolve, and a weak response in Ukraine might make a Chinese move on Taiwan more likely. Preexisting formal alliances like NATO in Europe and bilateral alliances in Asia can be supplemented with new arrangements, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. By signing up, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to occasionally receive special offers from Foreign Policy. As a result, Beijings economy is stagnating. Delivered Monday-Friday. Needs to Talk About the Risk of War With China, The Deep Roots of Pakistans Terrorism Crisis, The Conversation About Ukraine Is Cracking Apart. To be clear, it is incumbent on the White House to communicate to Beijing that supplying lethal aid to Russia would be met with economic consequences and cause irreparable damage to Chinas relationship with the West. Below is a breakdown of NATOs military strength compared to Chinas: As we can see, the combined armies of all NATO members are considerably stronger than Chinas Armed Forces. Weekly update on whats driving U.S. national security policy. China sees Taiwan as one of its own provinces, and has even vowed to use force to bring the island back within its influence. FPs Ravi Agrawal spoke with two of the very best Russia experts:Angela Stent, a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the author ofPutins World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest, and Michael Kofman, the research program director of the Russia studies program at the Center for Naval Analyses. Finland and Sweden's . Well send you latest news updates through the day. Dictators like Xi prioritize political control over economic performance. 2 They preened like WWE wrestlers pacing around the ring before a title bout. If any member state is attacked by a third party, then every member state must step in to defend it. There is the definite possibility of conflict between the two over Taiwan. As a communist country more closely aligned with the Soviets during the Cold War, there was no possibility for China to join the alliance. Nukes are out. The US and other countries have already supplied Ukraine with weapons, anti-aircraft systems and intelligence capabilities. We Find Out, The Long Game: Chinas Grand Strategy to Displace American Order byRush Doshi, China Unbound: A New World Disorder by Joanna Chiu, Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World by H. R. McMaster. Russia has over 600 ships and one aircraft carrier. However, it's worth noting that the U.S. alone, which is a member of NATO, has a military budget of $740.5 billion. Although NATO is clearly larger military than China, what would happen if a war broke-out between them? NATO countries have so far kept up their support for Ukraine, but fear Russian President Vladimir Putin could turn his attention to other former Soviet states including those that are now a part of NATO. European allies should invest in armor and artillery while Asian allies buy naval mines, harpoon missiles, and submarines. FPs Ravi Agrawal spoke with two of the very best Russia experts:Angela Stent, a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the author ofPutins World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest, and Michael Kofman, the research program director of the Russia studies program at the Center for Naval Analyses. To address this problem, many have proposed answers that simply will not work. These cookies are used to improve your experience and provide more personalized service to you. Many in China strongly dislike NATO due to this action. This would mean China could mobilize more people in a total war against NATO. If you are interested in the rise of China and its relationship with the West, we highly recommend the book The Long Game: Chinas Grand Strategy to Displace American Order byRush Doshi. Join in-depth conversations and interact with foreign-policy experts with. Russia is unlikely to accept the decision and will certainly not refrain from flying over Ukraine an all-out war is sure. The only realistic circumstances that could see NATO countries fight a war with China is over the island of Taiwan. Geography plays a key role in the outcome of conflicts. In addition, the United States can actively lead its allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific to develop a free world defense strategy. Instead of asking how much territory Russia has taken in one year, one should ask in what ways are the US, EU, and NATO weakened since Feb 2022 vs Russia, China, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, South Africa, etc. It also explores how the Western world, including NATO, should respond. It is highly unlikely that NATO as an alliance would be drawn into a conflict between China and the US. NATO VS RUSSIA + CHINA Military Power Comparison.Who Would Win?In the midst of Russia vs Ukraine military crisis today we bring you the military power compar. 4 Feb 2022. More than 50,000 troops and 5,000 weapons units will be present as China and Russia look to strengthen their military ties. Following the implementation of international sanctions during the war, China provided economic relief to Russia. Apart from a nuclear strike or a conventional inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM), China lacks the military strength to launch an attack over such a distance. Cue the protests from other parts of the globe: A chorus of nations are accusing Washington of fostering unfair competition. Click + to receive email alerts when new stories are published on Only fully democratic counties can be members of NATO. It tracks Chinas incredible rise over recent decades and how Chinas growing global influence is already affecting the wider world. He stressed that while NATO is no party to the Ukraine conflict its tasks are to ensure that Ukraine prevails and to prevent this war from escalating beyond Ukraine and becoming a full-fledged war between Russia and NATO., He said the main message from the meeting in Warsaw was that we will provide support to Ukraine for as long as it takes., It would be a "tragedy for the Ukrainians if President Putin wins in Ukraine, Stoltenberg said, and also dangerous for all of us because it would send the message to all authoritarian leaders that when they use military force, they get what they want.. but thats just an overview. At sea, China's navy has been threatening neighbouring countries for years. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (North Atlantic Alliance) is an intergovernmental military alliance which was signed in Washington on 4 April 1949. Trumps executive overreach on the border wall was wrong, so is Bidens student loan nonsense You can manage them any time by clicking on the notification icon. Although we can say that China is not a direct threat to NATO, this does not mean that conflict is impossible. NATO might claim victory for having turned back the Sino-Russian forces from their conquest of Eastern Europe. Opinion | Article 5 of the NATO treaty says that an attack on any NATO member is an attack on all. Ok, so although there is definite animosity in China against NATO its clear that China doesnt officially hate the alliance. Perhaps thousands here and few more thousands there. Chinese President Xi Jinping has also used his military to aggravate neighbouring Asian countries as well as the West. They do simulations or war plans. The first question to ask when assessing a possible conflict between China and NATO is which is stronger militarily. NATO's main headquarters are located in Brussels. The question would be, would this be seen as an attack on NATO or not? China has stated clearly that it will reunite with Taiwan and is willing to do this by force if necessary. However, is China opposed to NATO? The overall size of a military force is often not enough to determine the outcome of a conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow has to take into account NATO's . China's increased aggression against Taiwan and in the South China Sea is another point of hostility. Nato has so far remained on the sidelines, theoretically. In recent decades China has risen to become a major global power. 7:51 p.m. Delivered Thursday. Security All information comes from wikipedia.org, cia.gov, icanw.org, government websites and press releases. The U.S. Air Force (USAF) would play a supporting role in . Answer (1 of 62): I see alot of Americans here with an idea that such a war between NATO and Russia and China would be an easy win. Last week Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, threw themselves into preparations to escalate, wage and win the next phase of warfare in Ukraine. For the first time in any of Russia's recent aggressions, Putin has won the open support of China's leader. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said any Chinese involvement in the Kremlins war effort would be a serious problem. Ties between China and the U.S. are under severe strain over Taiwan and other issues. All rights reserved. By one estimate from Harvard University, more than 130,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or severely wounded, in addition to the deaths of more than 7,000 Ukrainian civilians. As an authoritarian state looking to roll-back Western hegemony, are NATO and China in direct competition? Orwell's prediction of an endless, three-way global confrontation proved premature. Opinion | The other countries involved will include several ex-Soviet nations, China, India, Laos, Mongolia, Nicaragua and Syria. However, with that said, tensions between China and the US are rising. But the US has a great advantage in the air and the sea. It explores Chinese history and uses extensive resources to explain Chinas current global strategy, including its attempt to build a sphere of influence and reduce America, and NATOs, global power. 'The definitive answer if the U.S. military doesn't change course is that we're going to lose fast,' Air Force Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, the . European allies should invest in armor and artillery while Asian allies buy naval mines, harpoon missiles, and submarines. "The situation is still very tense and China is trying to destroy the status quo or at least the symbol of the status quo, which is the median line of the Taiwan Strait. Ukraines economy and infrastructure have been dealt blows that will take decades to recover from. Delivered Wednesday & Sunday. The US and its allies have even ruled out a move to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine as demanded by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his supporters in the west. A new T-14 Armata main battle tank costs the Russian government around $3.7 million; again, about one third the expense of a NATO and American tank.